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Latest posts

Last updated about 7 hours ago

You keep using that word

about 8 hours ago

A friend sent me a fun article in FT Alphaville by Bryce...

Standard error of what now?

4 days ago

Scrolling through discourse about the evil vector, I stumbled across a group...

Two years of substacking

6 days ago

Today marks the 2nd anniversary of this substack, and my elaborate blogging...

Individual experiences and collective evidence

13 days ago

I’m on vacation this week and am handing over the blog controls...

One out of five AI researchers

17 days ago

Let’s close out the week by asking ourselves what forecasts are good...

Probability Is Only A Game

19 days ago

Earlier this year, I spent a few posts discussing de Finetti’s “score...

Restatements or Forecasts?

20 days ago

Lots of folks in the comments were unimpressed with the example I...

In Defense of Defensive Forecasting

21 days ago

I’m excited to share a new paper with Juanky Perdomo that surveys...

Strunk and White for Science

24 days ago

Science is correlations with stories. Validity is the style guide for these...

Milton Friedman's p-values

27 days ago

The replication crisis in psychology is over. Or at least that’s what...

The Open Marketplace of Ideas

about 1 month ago

Bah, I made a mistake. In Tuesday’s post, I tried to take...

A Defense of Peer Review

about 1 month ago

Last week’s blogging and ensuing feedback storm got so many issues swirling...