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Latest posts
Last updated about 7 hours ago
You keep using that word
about 8 hours ago
A friend sent me a fun article in FT Alphaville by Bryce...
Standard error of what now?
4 days ago
Scrolling through discourse about the evil vector, I stumbled across a group...
Two years of substacking
6 days ago
Today marks the 2nd anniversary of this substack, and my elaborate blogging...
Individual experiences and collective evidence
13 days ago
I’m on vacation this week and am handing over the blog controls...
One out of five AI researchers
17 days ago
Let’s close out the week by asking ourselves what forecasts are good...
Probability Is Only A Game
19 days ago
Earlier this year, I spent a few posts discussing de Finetti’s “score...
Restatements or Forecasts?
20 days ago
Lots of folks in the comments were unimpressed with the example I...
In Defense of Defensive Forecasting
21 days ago
I’m excited to share a new paper with Juanky Perdomo that surveys...
Strunk and White for Science
24 days ago
Science is correlations with stories. Validity is the style guide for these...
Milton Friedman's p-values
27 days ago
The replication crisis in psychology is over. Or at least that’s what...
The Open Marketplace of Ideas
about 1 month ago
Bah, I made a mistake. In Tuesday’s post, I tried to take...
A Defense of Peer Review
about 1 month ago
Last week’s blogging and ensuing feedback storm got so many issues swirling...