ECB - European Central Bank

Bank competition and credit risk: the conditioning role of capital

2 days ago

This paper examines how bank capital conditions the effect of competition on...

Out with the new, in with the old? Supranational bank supervision and the composition of firm investment

2 days ago

Using exogenous variation generated by the creation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism...

The factors behind output gap revisions

4 days ago

Estimates of potential output and the output gap are widely used in...

Entropic tilting of forecasts to SPF histograms: analytics & applications

3 days ago

We develop a direct approach to incorporating survey density forecasts into model-based...

Measuring sentiment news with transformer-based language models

3 days ago

Measuring sentiment from financial news is a central task in economics and...

When firms do not take the money and run: evidence from corporate loan moratoria

4 days ago

Suspending loan repayments is a widely used policy tool to provide liquidity...

Endogenous monetary policy effectiveness

5 days ago

How does the effectiveness of monetary policy vary over the policy cycle...

DeFi-ying the Fed? Monetary policy transmission to stablecoin deposit rates

6 days ago

Does the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy influence the rates on USD-pegged stablecoins...

Fiscal policy and sectoral spillovers in open-economy HANK

6 days ago

Government spending falls disproportionately on non-tradable services. We show empirically that government...

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026

10 days ago

Environmental policy uncertainty and cleantech FDI

20 days ago

This paper examines whether environmental policy uncertainty undermines clean-technology investment in the...

When the Crowd Speaks: AI-based retail investor sentiment indicator with Reddit data

27 days ago

Retail investors increasingly discuss markets in real time on social media, yet...