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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Get the latest updates from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science directly as they happen.

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Latest posts

Last updated about 2 hours ago

The soft bigotry of low expectations

about 2 hours ago

The headline of this NYT op-ed says it all: “Kennedy Is Telling...

What is “workflow” and why is it important?

about 12 hours ago

A few years ago we decided to write a book on Bayesian...

It’s open season on the unabashedly earnest

1 day ago

This is Jessica. In response to my post on slop, Thomas Basbøll...

Uh oh prediction markets

1 day ago

Palko points to this post from Molly White, who writes When billionaire...

Survey Statistics: 4th helpings of the logit shift

2 days ago

In June 2025 we discussed 2 flavors of calibration, including “the logit...

The stories behind our published research from last year

2 days ago

It’s January so time to look back on what we’ve done in...

Last post on the estimated effects of Mississippi school reforms

3 days ago

For background – How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact...

When in doubt (in teaching and in research) do a simulation on the computer.

5 days ago

The other day I taught my class and it didn’t go so...

The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science.

6 days ago

I happened to come across the above line in this post from...

Barnard College president promotes free expression, does not comment on recent anti-free-expression policies at the college

7 days ago

The president of neighboring Barnard College writes Now Is the Time for...

Pinning the group-level variance parameters to speed computation for hierarchical models

8 days ago

In case you don’t know about the Stan Forums, let me just...

What we can remember (the vagaries of literary fame)

8 days ago

OK, this one’s just for Campos Booth Tarkington is known as an...