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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 4 hours ago

Survey Statistics: Margin of Error

about 4 hours ago

What is a poll’s margin of error ? Let’s narrow the discussion...

A better way to fill in those missing bubbles in the standardized test

about 11 hours ago

I guess it’s all too late now, but it just came to...

What’s the essence of blogging?

1 day ago

Josh Marshall writes the following for the 25th anniversary of his political...

The Mets are hiring

2 days ago

Sam Saskin writes I’m reaching out because we are hiring for a...

“The Great Believers” by Rebecca Makkai

2 days ago

The author Rebecca Makkai has come up a couple times already in...

Concerns about the z-curve method

3 days ago

This is Erik: A few weeks ago, Andrew blogged about a paper...

My general advice if you’re stuck on a problem understanding a model you’ve fit to data

3 days ago

Someone wrote in with a complicated question about some model he’d fit...

This one’s for the blimp

4 days ago

Marty Supreme was excellent. Similar to Good Time, including in its intense...

8 arguments against polling (some are good arguments, some are bad)

4 days ago

1. Background A few months ago we had a post explaining what...

The soft bigotry of low expectations

5 days ago

The headline of this NYT op-ed says it all: “Kennedy Is Telling...

What is “workflow” and why is it important?

5 days ago

A few years ago we decided to write a book on Bayesian...

It’s open season on the unabashedly earnest

6 days ago

This is Jessica. In response to my post on slop, Thomas Basbøll...