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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 8 hours ago

Survey Statistics: more on recalled vote

about 8 hours ago

In December we simulated data with measurement error in recalled past vote...

A consensus–but it’s a consensus of uncertainty.

1 day ago

Jay Kadane sends along this this new paper on subjectivity and objectivity...

Everything I ever needed to know in life I learned from the men in the Epstein files

2 days ago

This is Jessica.  As literary agent and Epstein comrade John Brockman tells...

Hey, here’s $100,000 down the drain!

4 days ago

As the saying goes, some people have more dollars than sense Check...

Softly, effectively, in the age of genAI

6 days ago

This is Jessica. “Softly, effectively, and authoritatively” is how the US Federal...

“Statistics is widely understood to provide a body of techniques for ‘modeling data.'”

7 days ago

John “Bayesian Data Analysis” Carlin writes Recent developments in the methodology of...

Survey Statistics: 5 flavors of calibration

7 days ago

Last year we discussed 2 flavors of “calibration” in survey statistics. That...

“Parallelizing MCMC Across the Sequence Length”: This one is really cool.

8 days ago

David Zoltowski, Skyler Wu, Xavier Gonzalez, Leo Kozachkov, and Scott Linderman write...