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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 14 hours ago

When is it time for a Five-Year Plan?

about 14 hours ago

The term “Five-Year Plan” is a bitter joke, referring to the announcements...

Alchemize: PyMC’s model to replace Stan/PyMC, etc. with an LLM

1 day ago

This post is from Bob I’ll let Thomas Wiecki, who is one...

“DC Conventional Wisdom Goes Down to Defeat in State after State”

1 day ago

Josh Marshall writes Elections are hard to predict. But even with that,...

Recent discoveries on the acquisition of the highest levels of statistical fallacies

3 days ago

Mark Goldstein points us to this post by Alex Dimakis, who writes...

Survey Statistics: relevant alternatives ?

3 days ago

Three weeks ago we modeled vote choice with candidates C = {Left...

The Application Matters: Medical Ethics and Counterfactual Utilities

3 days ago

I believe, as applied statisticians, we need to get our hands dirty...

I’m on the EPA science advisory board.

4 days ago

I just joined, and I’m one of 37 people on the board...

It kinda makes sense that you can know roughly 700 people.

5 days ago

In planning my new course I read through Daniel Bell’s 1973 book...

Who wanted Trump to run in 2024?

6 days ago

Weakliem writes In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to a...

More thoughts regarding comfortable, powerful people who seem willing or even eager to blow up the system.

7 days ago

I wanted to elaborate on my post from yesterday, about comfortable, powerful...

“An Axiomatic Foundation for Decisions with Counterfactual Utility”

7 days ago

Benedikt Koch, Kosuke Imai, and Tomasz Strzalecki write Counterfactual utilities evaluate decisions...