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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 4 hours ago

“The idea of Israel” . . . more generally, The idea of X, for different values of X

about 4 hours ago

We were talking about herrenvolk democracy in class last week, and I...

Authors of the class “Lorrie Moore”

1 day ago

I’ve just been reading the hilarious novel Banal Nightmare, by Halle Butler...

Bayesian inferences and frequentist evaluations

2 days ago

Martin Forster, Marco Novelli, and Charlie Welch recently posted this preprint, which...

More on making a killing from prediction markets

3 days ago

Yesterday we discussed the disturbing phenomenon of people betting publicly on people...

Making a killing from prediction markets

4 days ago

Paul Alper points us to this news story from the Washington Post...

Missing forecasts

5 days ago

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Hibiscus.mp4 This post is by Lizzie Greetings from sunny Vancouver! I saw...

Survey Statistics: sampling-weighted loss

6 days ago

We’ve mostly focused on a population mean E(Y) as our quantity of...

“The inner workings of a scam”

6 days ago

This story from pharmacologist Csaba Szabo is hilarious/horrible. He goes through a...

Olympic memories

7 days ago

From 2024 Here’s my suggestion for next time: After all the events...

Remembering David MacKay

8 days ago

Pilgrim Beart informs us that is Cambridge Philosophical Society is organizing a...

Thinking about objections to ethnic political representation

9 days ago

I go onto Twitter and Bluesky every morning to post the link...