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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Latest posts
Last updated about 19 hours ago
Niall Ferguson, J. D. Vance, George Washington, and Jesus
about 19 hours ago
The Republican vice-presidential nominee made some remarks a few years ago about...
Two job openings, one in New York on data visualization, one near Paris on Bayesian modeling
2 days ago
There are so many interesting and important things to do in statistical...
(This one’s important:) Looking Beyond the Obvious: Essentialism and abstraction as central to our reasoning and beliefs
3 days ago
Recently in the sister blog A hallmark of human cognition is the...
The “fail fast” principle in statistical computing
4 days ago
If you’re not careful, you’ll spend most of your time on computations...
What do the data say about Kamala Harris’s electability?
4 days ago
I have a feeling that our regular readers are getting tired of...
The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a small pond
5 days ago
We’ve been talking about the piranha problem ever since 2017. The full...
What to do with election forecasts after Biden is replaced on the ticket? Also something on prediction markets.
6 days ago
A couple days ago, Raphael asked in the comment thread I have...
Put multiple graphs on a page: that’s what Nathan Yau says, and I agree.
6 days ago
Nathan Yau puts it well No single chart type can show every...
Some books: The Good Word (1978), The Hitler Conspiracies (2020), In Defense of History (1999), The Book of the Month (1986), Slow Horses (2010), Freedom’s Dominion (2022), A Meaningful Life (1971)
7 days ago
I just read some books. Rather than review or summarize them, I’ll...
How do you interpret standard errors from a regression fit to the entire population?
8 days ago
Someone who would like to remain anonymous writes I have worked on...
My comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight election forecast
8 days ago
OK, this is all getting a bit recursive, but I think there...
Polling averages and political forecasts and what do you really think is gonna happen in November?
9 days ago
tl;dr. People are slagging on the Fivethirtyeight election forecast because it’s at...