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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 7 hours ago

The Sapolsky Sanction

about 7 hours ago

Someone who would like to remain anonymous points to this hilariously entertaining...

When the numbers don’t look right, check them! (Mississippi education update)

1 day ago

Part 1: Reading what different sources say The other day, as part...

From Bayesian inference to LLMs (Steve Bronder’s 2025 CppCon talk)

1 day ago

Steve is now a C++ celebrity Steve Bronder. 2025. From Bayesian inference...

Gerd Gigerenzer on the legacy of Daniel Kahneman

2 days ago

Gigerenzer writes Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s joint papers from the 1970s...

Survey Statistics: probability samples vs epsem samples vs SRS samples

3 days ago

As I mentioned last week, in 2021 I taught Survey Research Methods...

Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein in a remake of The Big Clock

3 days ago

A few times on the blog we’ve referred to the classic noir...

Effective sample size depends on the quantity

3 days ago

This post is by Aki I recently blogged about the term effective...

How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias?

4 days ago

Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky, and Daniel Robinson write We were sceptical when...

Sermet Pekin’s open-source project that discovers blogs through recursive network exploration

5 days ago

Sermet Pekin writes I built an open-source project that discovers blogs through...

What’s it like to be the child of a white-collar criminal?

6 days ago

I’ve been listening to this BBC podcast, Lives Less Ordinary, that tells...

Flagging when the prior distribution is informative

7 days ago

For each parameter (or other qoi), compare the posterior sd to the...

Larry Summers, Ken Starr, Jeffrey Epstein, and everyone else

8 days ago

Two of the more memorable names to turn up in the Epstein...