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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 6 hours ago

Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time”

about 6 hours ago

Donna Spiegelman shares this presentation she gave at the recent American Causal...

Survey Statistics: it is (still) the people

about 23 hours ago

A year and a day ago, the Survey Statistics blog series launched...

Hey, it’s more plausible than the hyperloop or the idea that UFOs are space aliens!

1 day ago

Palko points to this breakdown of a junk news story. The fake-survey-to-headline...

Noem’s Razor and why I think the concept of “unintended consequences” is overrated

2 days ago

I was thinking more about Noem’s Razor (“Never attribute to stupidity that...

“Rationally Turbulent Expectations”

3 days ago

Kent Osband writes About 15 years ago you kindly linked an article...

Against too-clever-by-half political science cynicism

4 days ago

There’s a long tradition in political science of skepticism regarding proposed quick...

15 new articles on statistical workflow!

5 days ago

Aki, Richard, Lizzie, and I put together a special issue on Statistical...

The Kappa Zoo: David Eubanks’s online monograph on rating models

6 days ago

David Eubanks writes My site is kappazoo.com, and it’s still a work...

What if scientists really were dispassionate observers, communicating ideas without irrational commitment? Look here, says AI.

6 days ago

This is Jessica. We often idealize science as proceeding primarily by the...

Statistical analysis recapitulates the development of statistical methods

6 days ago

We ran this a few years ago but it remains interesting so...

No, Bayes does not like Mayor Pete. (Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability.)

7 days ago

This one’s from 2019, but it’s worth reposting given recent interest in...

Survey Statistics: double-plus robustness

8 days ago

Meng (2022) pops up a lot here: “it is the people” (the...