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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 13 hours ago

Does anyone have a lower Jordan3 number than Evans Boney? (And what about the Ariely-Armstrong-Enron number?)

about 14 hours ago

From last year’s post, What’s your Jordan3 number In the discussion of...

OK, here’s a statistics problem for you, ripped directly from the headlines!

1 day ago

From the NYT Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to propose linking Grand...

Update on “I don’t understand this paper claiming election fraud in 2024 in Pennsylvania”

3 days ago

Last year we briefly discussed a hard-to-follow paper by political scientist Walter...

Updike and statistical writing; more on honesty and precision

4 days ago

So, yeah, I’ve been reading more of these Updike stories. They’re really...

Confirmation bias in software testing, Walnutpie edition

4 days ago

So, those exciting results I presented at StanCon about Walnutpie? Let’s pull...

Metascience corner: What can we learn from 12 million empirical research results?

4 days ago

This is Witold and today we are building a bear. In our...

Survey Statistics: logit shift and raking

5 days ago

We’ve been discussing how to use population margin information about poststratification variables...

Updike’s kaleidoscope: Telling a life through a set of unconnected stories

6 days ago

John Updike wrote around 250 short stories, the vast majority of which...

I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data and doesn’t replicate.

6 days ago

Dan Ariely—the much-decorated business school professor, retired Wall Street Journal columnist, Ted-talk...

Do children grow continuously or do they grow in fits and starts?

7 days ago

There’s some literature on saltatory growth in children From 1992: Saltation and...

Coyote vs. Acme (also, for free, my take on The Odyssey)

7 days ago

First, let’s get this one out of the way: my take on...