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andrewgelman.com

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Latest posts

Last updated about 17 hours ago

Don’t Hold Out On Me: Some thoughts on out-of-sample prediction

about 17 hours ago

Ryan Socha writes Typically in statistical modeling, we validate or test models...

Misattribution (when someone claims you said something that you’ve never said)–it’s kind of like plagiarism in reverse.

2 days ago

We’ve talked a lot about copying-without-attribution on this blog and elsewhere. I’ve...

Evaluation blind spots and eliciting moving targets

3 days ago

This is Jessica. There have been a few interesting articles in the...

“On Sociological Exploitation: Why the Guinea Pig Sometimes Bites”

3 days ago

In the above-titled article from 1971, political scientist Brian Vargus wrote Resistance...

Charles Margossian and Lawrence Saul win AISTATS ’25 Best Paper

3 days ago

It was just announced that Charles Margossian and Lawrence Saul won the...

I. J. Good corner: The flying Venus flytrap and other partly-baked ideas

4 days ago

We recently had a discussion about useless insights from social science, and...

Books by Charles Rosen and Jeremy Denk on piano playing and the nature of music

5 days ago

I just read two interesting books by classical pianists: Piano Notes by...

Measurement error model Stan fitting struggle: The funnel again rears its ugly head

7 days ago

1. The model and my initial expectations I simulated data and then...

Anticipated good news if the economy goes downhill

8 days ago

There’s some concern about an upcoming recession caused by economic shocks, including...

Here’s what’s happening with time-shifting of births.

8 days ago

A couple weeks ago we discussed the question, “What day of the...

What is judgment and decision making (JDM)?

9 days ago

JDM now Dan Goldstein has two posts that should interest some of...