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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Latest posts
Last updated 22 minutes ago
What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to past decades)
25 minutes ago
There’s a lot of talk about how the polls can go wrong...
Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing
about 13 hours ago
U.S. election day is tomorrow. So let’s talk about something else 1....
Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error
1 day ago
A political science colleague wrote in We are all abuzz about the...
Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses?
1 day ago
There are actually two questions here 1. Should pollsters share all the...
Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling
1 day ago
Paul Alper shares this horrifying news story by Laura Meckler Brian Ray...
A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote
2 days ago
There’s some confusion regarding jumps in election forecasts. New information is coming...
Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?
3 days ago
This is Jessica. I got through a long string of deadlines and...
“Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???”
4 days ago
Shane Frederick writes Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for...
Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computer
5 days ago
Just in time for Halloween, we have a scarily effective implementation of...
StanCon 2024 Oxford: recorded talks are now released!
5 days ago
(This post is by Charles) The title says it all: recordings of...
Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) for an astronomy problem
6 days ago
Harrison Siegel pointed us to this project with Maximiliano Isi and Will...
What makes an MCMC sampler GPU-friendly?
6 days ago
(This post is by Charles) Art Owen (Stanford) read our paper on...